I can now confirm what I subsconsciously knew when I wrote my "useless" predictions about the baseball playoffs only a short few days ago: most prognostications are just a random chance guess. An entry headline where "Cubs Going Down in Flames" doesn't begin to tell someone how painful it has been to watch the NL's best regular-season team failing to deliver by any measure so far in the postseason.
One may want to blame all of this on a "curse", but the manner in which the Chicago north side team played on Wednesday and Thursday can most certainly be called "ugly". There is no doubt about that. Their pitching has been poor (7+ runs in each game), they haven't shown any offensive muscle (2 and 3 runs, respectively), and the defense has been uncharacteristically bad (1 error in Game 1 followed by 4! in Game 2). When starter Carlos Zambrano, the "ace" of the staff", gives up seven runs but only three are earned thanks to two miscues in one half inning alone, you know the team is self-destructing. Realistically, the Cubs have dug themselves into a hole from which recovery is not probable. Possible, yes, but not likely. The next game will feature the Cubs' "next best" starter in Rich Harden, who gives them some hope, but then a Game 4, if there is one, would likely feature the Dodgers' Derek Lowe, who shut them down in Game 1. Of course, both games are being playing on the road, away from the "Friendly Confines" and in Chavez Ravine (i.e. Dodger Stadium). The sweep that I projected was not supposed to happen like this ... are the Dodgers really this good? Dodgers lead 2-0. Game 3 in LA on Saturday.
Around the rest of playoff action ...
How about those Rays? Evan Longoria, rookie extraordinaire, provided much of the offense (and possibly en route to a series MVP) with two homers and three RBI. The Rays bullpen, not suprisingly, was stellar in Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell, both notching two K in their appearances. Dan Wheeler made one mistake (homer to Paul Konerko) but was otherwise in control in recording the save. The White Sox offensively could have kept pace but stranded 11 runners on base. The top of the seventh inning was really the critical moment, as starter James Shields walked Alexi Ramirez and then hit A.J. Pierzynski with a pitch to load the bases (after Konerko had reached base earlier with a single). Balfour came in and struck out the only two batters he faced - Juan Uribe and Orlando Cabrera - to escape unscathed and preserve the lead. Keep an eye on Tampa the rest of the way. Rays lead 1-0. Game 2 Friday in Tampa.
CC Sabathia has officially run out of gas. The fatigue factor of pitching so many innings with so few days rest appears to have finally caught the big guy. Couple that with Philadelphia starter Brett Myers walking in a run in the first (avoiding more possible damage) but then settling down to work the next five scoreless innings before surrending only a second in the seventh, his last inning. Sabathia couldn't make it out of the fourth inning, leaving with the bases loaded but rescued by reliever Mitch Stetter. The real damage against CC happened in the bottom of the second, notably where five runs scored (all of the Philly offense for the game) in a sequence that saw him walk, unexpectedly, his counterpart Myers followed by Jimmy Rollins, both with two outs. That left the bases loaded, and Sabathia made a mistake to Shane Victorino that resulted in the centerfielder's first career grand slam. Phillies lead the series 2-0 and appear easily in control heading to Milwaukee for Game 3. Game 3 Saturday in Milwaukee.
No new games played in the only other series - Angels vs Red Sox - where the home team Angels must rebound tonight behind starter Ervin Santana, who reversed a trend this season by pitching better away from "The Big A" home field than on it. Hopefully, he pulls some of his 2006 and 2007 success of home dominance to the park in Game 2. His counterpart is Dice-K (Daisuke Matsuzaka), who had an outstanding season with a sub-3.00 ERA (2.90, to be exact) and a measly .211 BAA. He faced the Angels only once this season (his first time ever) and was shelled at Fenway for seven hits and six runs in only five innings of work, one of his few season losses. Santana did not face Boston this season, making him a bit of a wild card. His last appearance against Boston was late in 2007, where he won in Boston by allowing only one run in 6 1/3 innings. Red Sox lead 1-0. Game 2 Friday in Anaheim.
Showing posts with label Milwaukee Brewers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Milwaukee Brewers. Show all posts
Friday, October 03, 2008
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
My Useless Attempt at MLB Playoff Prognosticating
I preface my writing with the knowledge that my predictions (for sporting picks in general) are correct slightly better than 50% of the time. Given my invested time in watching / analyzing baseball, though, my stats are only slightly better. Last season, I managed to pick four out of the six division winners and one of the wild card teams. For whatever reason, I didn't formally declare preseason picks this season. I can honestly say here's what I probably would have picked (in hindsight) had I made those choices: NL Central - Cubs or Brewers, NL West - Diamondbacks, NL East - Mets, NL Wild Card - Brewers or Cubs; AL Central - Indians, AL West - Angels, AL East - Red Sox, AL Wild Card - Tigers. As you can see, I would have missed badly on a couple of those picks, but I still would have hit about 50% overall for the postseason (if not quite in the right spots). But, enough of my backwards-looking, forward-thinking writing ... on to the future picking.
AL Playoffs
ALDS:
Angels vs. Red Sox
I am a major fan of the baseball that Mike Scioscia's Angels play. The team scores runs in a variety of ways (particularly adept at advancing runners and scoring runners from scoring position), and their addition of Mark Teixeira only made the offense better. In no way do I belittle the accomplishments of the Red Sox, but this Angels team is as solid as they come from top to bottom. No Josh Beckett for the starting rotation (possibly only in Game 3, at best) does not bode well for the Sox. John Lackey has had his own share of ups and downs throughout the season, but he is formidable ace of the Angels staff. I'll take the Angels in 4 games, 3-1.
Rays vs. AL Central Champ (Twins or White Sox)
OK, how confident am I in what the Rays have accomplished this season? Manager Joe Maddon is a leader in the style of Scioscia in LA, no less, and has managed to keep this team afloat, and successful, despite injuries to key offensive players throughout the season. The same can also be said of other managers, but none have done it better than Maddon. This team was expected to be better, but it wasn't expected to be the AL East champion. Regardless of who the Rays play, neither the Twins nor the White Sox will match-up well with them in a series. If the Twins make it, I think they pose the better threat (the generally one-dimensional White Sox offense is simply not the same without Carlos Quentin) but still fall short. I choose the Rays in 4 games, 3-1.
ALCS:
Assuming my two previous picks come to fruition, a Rays-Angels series looks quite interesting. Similar managerial styles and similar playing abilities (more or less) make this one tough to call. I lean towards the team with more depth, and overall experience, by choosing the Angels in 6 games, 4-2. My head says the Angels, but my heart says the Rays figure out a way to overcome experience. Maybe this one even goes seven games ... I'll be watching either way.
NL Playoffs
NLDS:
Phillies vs. Brewers
On paper, this looks like a potential mismatch in many ways. The Phillies dominated the regular season series 8-1, and CC Sabathia will start Game 2 (at the earliest) after having to start Sunday's clinching finale. The rest of the Brewer starting rotation is a mess, particularly with Ben Sheets being a big question mark. Yovani Gallardo may have been a solid starter from a year ago (before injury) ... can he really be a factor now? I'll give the Brewers' heart a factor here but not enough to overcome. My pick is the Phillies in 5 games, 3-2. (which might be generous to Brewer pitching ... Phillies bullpen can be lights out)
Cubs vs. Dodgers
In a short series, LA could play Chicago tough, but I don't think Dodger pitching can stop the Cub offense. Conversely, Chicago pitching is more than up to the task of shutting down the Dodger offense (just keep pitching around Manny). I'll go slightly out on a limb here and say Cubs coast to 3-0 sweep. Zambrano might be the only real question mark I have ... Harden, Dempster, and Lilly are solid in my book.
NLCS:
Again, assuming good choices in the first round, a Cubs versus Phillies matchup poses some intrigue (and likely better ratings than the alternative ALCS, which won't get much if the Red Sox aren't in it). In a longer series, the depth of the Cubs will be even more obvious, although strong pitching (Cubs) versus strong offense (Phillies) can be counteractive ... pitching still usually wins. I'll choose to see this one go longer, but I still pick Cubs in 6 games, 4-2 to make their first World Series in over half a century (since 1945).
World Series
Making a pick this far out is even tougher, as I have to bank on my previous choices being right. A series featuring the Cubs and Angels would not be devoid of interest ... but I'm sure a Red Sox - Cubs matchup would draw gigantic ratings. The Angels are not likely to be quite the draw (if their 2002 WS ratings are an indication), but anything involving the Cubs, who draw on the same "inspiration" as the 2004 Red Sox did, will probably draw viewers. I truly believe this is it ... the year (100 years to the last time) that the Cubs win the series, in 7 games, 4-3. No team has gone longer between Championships (excluding, of course, franchises that have never won a title), so why not the Cubs and why not now?
AL Playoffs
ALDS:
Angels vs. Red Sox
I am a major fan of the baseball that Mike Scioscia's Angels play. The team scores runs in a variety of ways (particularly adept at advancing runners and scoring runners from scoring position), and their addition of Mark Teixeira only made the offense better. In no way do I belittle the accomplishments of the Red Sox, but this Angels team is as solid as they come from top to bottom. No Josh Beckett for the starting rotation (possibly only in Game 3, at best) does not bode well for the Sox. John Lackey has had his own share of ups and downs throughout the season, but he is formidable ace of the Angels staff. I'll take the Angels in 4 games, 3-1.
Rays vs. AL Central Champ (Twins or White Sox)
OK, how confident am I in what the Rays have accomplished this season? Manager Joe Maddon is a leader in the style of Scioscia in LA, no less, and has managed to keep this team afloat, and successful, despite injuries to key offensive players throughout the season. The same can also be said of other managers, but none have done it better than Maddon. This team was expected to be better, but it wasn't expected to be the AL East champion. Regardless of who the Rays play, neither the Twins nor the White Sox will match-up well with them in a series. If the Twins make it, I think they pose the better threat (the generally one-dimensional White Sox offense is simply not the same without Carlos Quentin) but still fall short. I choose the Rays in 4 games, 3-1.
ALCS:
Assuming my two previous picks come to fruition, a Rays-Angels series looks quite interesting. Similar managerial styles and similar playing abilities (more or less) make this one tough to call. I lean towards the team with more depth, and overall experience, by choosing the Angels in 6 games, 4-2. My head says the Angels, but my heart says the Rays figure out a way to overcome experience. Maybe this one even goes seven games ... I'll be watching either way.
NL Playoffs
NLDS:
Phillies vs. Brewers
On paper, this looks like a potential mismatch in many ways. The Phillies dominated the regular season series 8-1, and CC Sabathia will start Game 2 (at the earliest) after having to start Sunday's clinching finale. The rest of the Brewer starting rotation is a mess, particularly with Ben Sheets being a big question mark. Yovani Gallardo may have been a solid starter from a year ago (before injury) ... can he really be a factor now? I'll give the Brewers' heart a factor here but not enough to overcome. My pick is the Phillies in 5 games, 3-2. (which might be generous to Brewer pitching ... Phillies bullpen can be lights out)
Cubs vs. Dodgers
In a short series, LA could play Chicago tough, but I don't think Dodger pitching can stop the Cub offense. Conversely, Chicago pitching is more than up to the task of shutting down the Dodger offense (just keep pitching around Manny). I'll go slightly out on a limb here and say Cubs coast to 3-0 sweep. Zambrano might be the only real question mark I have ... Harden, Dempster, and Lilly are solid in my book.
NLCS:
Again, assuming good choices in the first round, a Cubs versus Phillies matchup poses some intrigue (and likely better ratings than the alternative ALCS, which won't get much if the Red Sox aren't in it). In a longer series, the depth of the Cubs will be even more obvious, although strong pitching (Cubs) versus strong offense (Phillies) can be counteractive ... pitching still usually wins. I'll choose to see this one go longer, but I still pick Cubs in 6 games, 4-2 to make their first World Series in over half a century (since 1945).
World Series
Making a pick this far out is even tougher, as I have to bank on my previous choices being right. A series featuring the Cubs and Angels would not be devoid of interest ... but I'm sure a Red Sox - Cubs matchup would draw gigantic ratings. The Angels are not likely to be quite the draw (if their 2002 WS ratings are an indication), but anything involving the Cubs, who draw on the same "inspiration" as the 2004 Red Sox did, will probably draw viewers. I truly believe this is it ... the year (100 years to the last time) that the Cubs win the series, in 7 games, 4-3. No team has gone longer between Championships (excluding, of course, franchises that have never won a title), so why not the Cubs and why not now?
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