A Reality Check ... Did Reds Really "Lose" In Today's Blockbuster Trade?!?

OK, I have scanned over a number of comments from my fellow fans so far, and I have seen very few which were positive in favor of the Cincinnati Reds getting the better part of this deal. As a lifelong Reds fan, I can say that I completely support any move at this stage of the season that strengthens the team's bullpen and delivers some hope to make a run for the playoffs. Why? Let's break it down...

Austin Kearns: Unquestionably, he is the most talented player involved in this trade. Kearns has been playing solid defense, has begun to learn to hit for average, and has more than enough power to be a threat in any team's lineup. I like Kearns personally, but, at the same time, his upside potential is limited to his ability to make contact. Austin swings for the fences (much like his counterpart Adam Dunn) but doesn't always reach his destination. It is harder for me to see Kearns go, but we have to give up something to get something.

Felipe Lopez: Lopez may have been the Reds' All-Star of 2005, but he has not been that same player this year. Barry Larkin, he is not. What Lopez had done well last season was hit for average and power as well as showcase awesome speed and good defensive range. What Felipe has failed to do this season is hit for as much power, strikeout more often (with a lower BA), and commit stupid errors at critical points in games. Whether his fielding ultimately cost his job remains to be seen, but it certainly did not help his cause.

Ryan Wagner: I thought Wagner was the closer in the wings when he made the team last season, but he has languished in AAA all season this year and failed to prove his ability to make the MLB club full-time with a variety of pitches. He has plenty of pop (95-99 mph on the gun), but his control needs work. He and Kearns may be the two we may regret down the road, while Lopez may ultimately be forgettable (imho).

So, for our three players (two ML'ers and one in AAA) we receive five players (indicating more players to offset the potential talent lost). I cannot say I am expert at our team's acquisitions, but here is my take on each ...

Gary Majewski: 26 yo righty with ML career with the Expos / Nationals. He does not appear to be overpowering, but his ERA was close to team-best for Washington last season (2.93) and one of the best this season (3.5, despite a bad outing (3 runs in 1/3 inning on Sunday) that raised it nearly 0.5 (from 3.11 to 3.5. Given the Reds have a bullpen ERA over 5.00 (at 5.16 before Thursday), Majewski is a net help immediately.

Bill Bray: Former 1st round pick (like Ryan Wagner, same draft) with upside potential and nice speed on the fastball. The 23 yo southpaw looks like the diamond in the rough for the Reds and is a key pitching prospect / talent from the Nationals' organization.

Royce Clayton: Almost anybody who follows baseball knows about Clayton. Clayton's strength is more about his defense than his batting, but, offensively, his best years may be behind him. Clearly a journeyman shortstop, he can still play everyday at the age of 36, but even his defense has weakened a bit with 11 errors this season to date. His best defensive seasons were with the Chicago White Sox in 2001 and 2002 with .988 and .989 FP%, respectively, as well as under 10 errors in each year (7 and 5, respectively). Clayton can be a fair sub for Lopez on a day-to-day basis if not platooning with Rich Aurilia and/or Ryan Freel around the infield, including Juan Castro and Brandon Phillips, who both can play at SS as well.

Brendan Harris: The bench player / pinch hitter should be a help for the infield with solid defensive skills as well as the ability to deliver a pinch hit in the clutch. Harris is only turning 26 yo in August, so I think his career potential has upside at this juncture. The Reds should feel comfortable with Harris as a late-inning defensive sub and/or another bat off the bench. But, the other Reds' players affected include ...

Ryan Freel: Freel may get a chance to be more of an everyday player with Kearns or Lopez around, but he will continue to find his niche here no matter what. His speed is impressive, and his defensive skills at a variety of positions make him a versatile, and valuable, utilityman.

Chris Denorfia: With the absence of Austin Kearns, Denorfia moves up from AAA to have an opportunity to take over RF full-time. His first audition earlier this season showed some of his worth, before being sent back to AAA in mid-May. He had four hits in only eight AB (.500) with seven game appearances on the season. GM Wayne Krivsky is very keen on Denorfia as an everyday player, and, in turning 26 on Saturday this week, Denorfia is ready to prove himself as an everyday player.

All in all, the bullpen of the Reds needed the most help, so having both Majewski and Bray should be a net benefit to a club that is offense-heavy and pitching-weak. Kearns will be missed for his solid and consistent play (and likely All-Star future) while Lopez will be missed for having failed to deliver what "could have been" in carrying on the tradition of Reds at SS with Concepcion and Larkin. Wagner's jury is still out, although I personally am a big supporter of the kid.

Majewski and Bray may not be Kearns and Lopez today, but, combining the two new Reds with the other three, the trade seems reasonable and balanced to me for a team in need of pitching.

Ramblings Returns? Where We Go From Here ...

More than a month has passed since I last wrote to the Ramblings of a Reds Fan journal, and, admittedly, life has been happening while I have been making other plans. Marriage is first and foremost my concern, considering I wasn't married when the RRF began, but now I am a married man with a wife at home and a full-time job requiring greater responsibilities of me now than two months ago. I could continue giving reasons (or excuses) why the Report isn't current or updated; however, I really don't see the point in giving the multitude of explanations.

Plain and simple, weekly updates of this journal are not unrealistic, and I have been lax about keeping my information current. With additional summer "vacations" planned over the upcoming weeks, I owe my readers some firsthand information I can provide from my race track trips.

Some "past" and "upcoming" information that could have been posted already includes:
- The "streakiness" of the ballclub ... win a lot and lose a lot
- The current (most recent) losing skid
- How to effectively fix the relief pitching on this team
- Why is the offensive output so erratic (10 runs one day and no runs the next)
- Is Bronson Arroyo the best thing since sliced bread ... or will reality soon set in?
- Who is the ace of this staff? Harang, Arroyo, or someone else?!?
- Can Adam Dunn actually play defense?
- Will Junior stay healthy for the rest of the season?
- And much, much more ...

I am also proud to (re-)announce that I am the Cincinnati, OH, Local Chapter President for the Official NASCAR Members Club (LC 452381), which began in mid-to-late April. The chapter website is located at: http://onmcchapter.com/index.php?uname=452381&select_state=OH

Separately, I run my general sports website at: http://clubhouseconnection.net This site houses a variety of content, most exclusively the sole provider for the "Soul Patrol" CD (downloadable mp3 files by purchase) published by baseball rock artists Clubhouse (comprised of Blessid Union of Souls (BUOS), among others) for our website of Clubhouse Connection. If you haven't already checked it out, please check out the Clutch Hits CD published by the Cincinnati Reds in conjunction with the Reds Foundation and Buddy Rodgers music here in Cincinnati. It is a fantastic CD supporting a foundation for good causes.

The NASCAR special section co-links the ONMC Chapter site noted above with the NASCAR.com sign-up page that includes my special ID # for referral purposes and to be included as a potential member of my chapter (regardless if you live near Cincinnati, OH, or not). http://clubhouseconnection.net/nascar/

This is a quick "hello again" and an equally quick "I must be off / goodbye" since time is of the essence. Please know that I haven't forgotten about my writing journals, and I hope to be back to twice-weekly publishing again very soon.

Miss a Week, Miss a Lot ... Reds Slumping in May; Lose Five Straight

When I last wrote about the Reds on Friday, May 5th, they were coming off a lopsided 7-1 loss in Arizona at the hands of the surging Diamondbacks. Saturday's game was slightly better but still was notched as a loss (3-1) to Arizona once again. Staving off a sweep, the Reds rebounded for a 9-8 win on Sunday (5/7) to salvage a bad road trip. Returning home looked to be the medicine this team needed, and the Washington Nationals could be a great candidate to motivate this team into action.

After Monday's off day, the Reds lost again behind the arm of Brandon Claussen in an ugly 7-1 loss on Tuesday. Back-to-back days (Wednesday and Thursday, 5/10 and 5/11) brought back-to-back wins (9-6 and 5-4) for the first time since the brief St. Louis series a week earlier. When the weekend rolled around, the phenomenal Phillies were riding a big winning streak (losing only one of their last ten games) ... and that trend did not stop against the Reds. Friday's 8-4 loss featured a solid (if unspectacular) start by Elizardo Ramirez and a bullpen blow-up, Saturday's 2-0 loss was a tough pill to swallow (Jon Lieber pitched 6 2/3 perfect innings against a great start by fifth starter Dave Williams), and Sunday's extra-inning 2-1 loss (with a wasted quality start by Brandon Claussen) could have gone either way.

Thank goodness for off days because this team needed one on Monday, 5/15. The last 11 games (all during the month of May) had seen only four wins versus an ugly seven losses; however, the Reds managed to stay only one game behind the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals. Of course, given that this is being written early Thursday morning (a few days later), a couple more games have taken place. If the records meant anything, the first half of this road trip (against NL Central patsies, Pittsburgh Pirates) should have been a walk in the park. Or not.

The last two games -- a 9-3 whuppin' and an equally ugly 7-2 loss on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively -- have nothing short of "gag me" excruciating pain. The offense is gone, the pitching attrocious ... what positive things can I possibly find out of these losses? Starts by Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, the team's two best starters, were awful. Deservedly, both starters also notched the losses.

Mercifully, the Reds-Pirates series ends today (Thursday, 5/18) during a business day special in Pittsburgh. The Reds still hold a winning record (23-17) versus the awful record of the Pirates (13-27), but this Cincinnati club will be lucky not to be swept once again if the offense doesn't come around soon. Dave Williams (2-3, 6.32 - getting his act together lately) faces Victor Santos (1-4, 5.32 - coming off a bad outing against the Marlins last Friday) in this critical game for the Reds. Considering the next series is in Detroit against baseball's surprising second-best team (the Tigers), the Reds need to figure things out quickly before the Cardinals lap them in the NL Central.