Cincinnati Reds Preview: More of the Same in 2010?

A lot of speculation has surrounded this year’s version of the Cincinnati Reds, most notably for the surprising, almost out-of-nowhere signing of Aroldis Chapman to solidify the starting rotation potentially immediately. After last year’s team had some expectation of achieving better things but failed to deliver, this year’s squad comes in with low expectations … which might just mean a surprise is in order.

First and foremost, what doomed the Reds in 2009 is what likely will be the biggest hurdle in 2010: having offensive firepower. The individual cogs of the machine that make up the lineup are not bad, but put them all together and they couldn’t generate runs last season. The late-season addition of Scott Rolen took many by surprise, and having the third baseman return for another season as a very good team leader might be what changes things finally. The infield finally has taken some shape, with Rolen at third, new addition Orlando Cabrera at short, stalwart Brandon Phillips at second, and eventual (hopefully) steady captain-in-waiting Joey Votto at first. Behind the plate, the Reds still have some concern, although Ramon Hernandez was retained for cheaper than expected and Ryan Hanigan is a more-than-capable platoon choice defensively. The backups around the diamond hold some interesting potential as well, from Juan Francisco (backing up Rolen at third) to Paul Janish (who we already have seen be a utility infielder but can pick-it like a Gold Glover at short) as well as off-season acquisition Aaron Miles (who can provide some relief behind Phillips at second). As a positive, to provide some relief for Votto in the field, Ramon Hernandez already provided some of that help at first last season when he subbed in the starting lineup as well as later in the game.

The situation in the outfield is still a bit murky, only because the talent pool has some depth but equally provides some complexity. The starting three from left to right looks like Jonny Gomes (who has gone homer crazy in Spring Training so far) in left, Drew Stubbs in center, and star-in-waiting Jay Bruce in right. The backups for these three are equally intriguing from Chris Dickerson (who can play left or center in a platoon scenario and has some speed defensively as well as on the basepaths), Laynce Nix (re-signed to a minor league deal but may or may not make the club depending on roster spots remaining; he has some nice offensive pop that the lineup could use), and Wladimir Balentien (a spot starter last season and could play where needed in any outfield slot).

When the subject of the Cincinnati club turns to pitching, the starting rotation seems like a bright spot; however, if the spring results so far are an indicator, the team might be riding a roller coaster depending on the right (or wrong) combo of starters. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo should be stalwarts on the starting staff (and still the default 1-2 punch), but Harang hasn’t been Harang since 2007 (even though he was among the best in both 2006 and 2007), and Arroyo is a steady innings-eater but doesn’t always deliver big wins totals by season’s end. Both guys are in the final years of their contracts … which should mean they want to prove the doubters wrong (I hope). I won’t be surprised to see either or both traded by the trading deadline unless they start pitching lights-out like both are capable of doing. The rest of the rotation is where the real potential lies, from Homer Bailey (also with the “star-in-waiting” logo firmly affixed and who looks to have a great season ahead based on late 2009 results) to Johnny Cueto (whose fastball and slider combo still can burn many major leaguers) to Micah Owings (who still gets as much notoriety for his offensive ability in addition to his pitching skills). Bailey and Cueto are almost assuredly the third and fourth starters, and the success (or failure) of these two might determine exactly where this club finishes. Other pitchers vying for a rotation spot include the aforementioned Owings (most likely headed to the long relief role again as well as spot pinch hitter), Travis Wood (who might become a long reliever or sneak into the fifth starter spot), Mike Leake (who has had a decent if unspectacular spring), and the wild card of Aroldis Chapman (who fought some back spasms earlier this spring but continues to look sharp in his outings). If either Wood or Chapman makes the team and fills out the starting rotation with some high-velocity capability, this team just moved up in a notch in its prospects for 2010.

All in all, the Reds will be a team that can compete in the NL Central (as has been the broken record for the past few seasons), but, unlike past years, the competition is not markedly better than the Reds are this season. Offense is still the biggest question mark, but pitching should not be the issue. The bullpen is equally solid and up to the task as the starting rotation should be. Francisco Cordero (the Reds’ lone All-Star choice) should continue to be solid if not for the possibility of being trade bait by mid-season or earlier. Nick Masset, Jared Burton (potential closer in waiting), Arthur Rhodes (former closer with some capability), and Daniel Ray Herrera are all assured spots based on past performance. Justin Lehr (spot starter last season) may or may not start in the big leagues this year, but Mike Lincoln along with Owings should also get spots. Other familiar names (Kip Wells, Carlos Fisher, and Matt Maloney) are probably not quite ready to start the season in the majors.

The optimist in me wants to peg this club as an NL Central contender, but, realistically, the Chicago Cubs are still better and will likely win the division again. The NL Wild Card is not out of the question, though, as being second place in this division just might make the playoffs anyway.

Latest Rumblings from Reds' Camp (St. Patrick's Day Edition - March 17)

I don't have a lot of "new" information to share except what I have seen coming from Spring Training Camp in Sarasota, Florida. Of course, we all know that this is the last season for Sarasota, as the Reds head west next Spring to sunny Goodyear, Arizona. While some aspects of Florida spring training will be missed (notably, Florida itself), the likelihood of more sunny days and far less rain probabilities make Arizona the better long-term home for the team (or at least it seems that way).

As far as the product on the field, the pitching staff continues to impress. Aaron Harang looks like the pitcher we all remember, Volquez is doing what we expect (so far), Cueto looks improved (with limited data, since he's logged innings for his WBC team recently), and Arroyo looks as "normal" as ever (as a compliment, he shows no mechanical or physical issues to date). The biggest and best surprises have clearly been Micah Owings (whom I expected to show us big things) and Homer Bailey (could this be HIS year at last?). Owings, known more for his hitting than his pitching, is showing some pretty solid stuff so far this spring, and, if I were to guess, he'll get the fifth starter spot to start the season. However, Homer has staked a claim that the role is his, too ... but I see him headed to long relief to start the season (as my personal best guess).

Who hasn't looked good? Francisco Cordero looks shaky at best ... is age a factor? Have the Reds got an "alternative" if he falls apart during the season? My fast answers are Jared Burton (who could close very soon) and David Weathers (thankfully, he came back ... even if he seems unreliable to us). Weathers has been about as steady as they come over the past few seasons, so an unreliable Cordero is concerning but not as difficult to overcome if the "closer by committee" rears its ugly head at some point.

Offensively, there have been a few bright spots. Johnny Gomes has all but locked up a roster spot with a great spring training, and he is positioned to platoon in left field with Chris Dickerson. Dickerson still shows "immaturity" in his game ... but still shows great potential as an everyday player down the road. Jacque Jones has been a bust so far ... and may be released outright or possibly signed to a minor league deal if he agrees. Most of the minor leaguers who were invited to camp have been sent back down, including #1 pick Yonder Alonso, hot hitter Todd Frazier, and Minor League Player of the Year Chris Valaika.

The projected lineup for Opening Day is looking pretty clear (dependent upon whom we see pitching for our opponents, the New York Mets).

1 - Willy Taveras (speed to burn)
2 - Jeff Keppinger (likely) / Jerry Hairston (possible, depends on platoon) / Chris Dickerson (if platooning) / Edwin Encarnacion (doubtful)
3 - Joey Votto (no-brainer)
4 - Brandon Phillips (ditto)
5 - Jay Bruce (definite)
6 - Edwin Encarnacion (likely) / Dickerson (maybe) / Hairston / Keppinger
7 - Ramon Hernandez (likely, although I can see him hitting higher if the power is there)
8 - Alex Gonzalez (depends on his recovery) / Keppinger (maybe)
9 - Pitcher's spot (although, if Owings is in the rotation, this might change)

Your rotation seems very likely to be: Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, and Owings (in that order). Bailey might contend for that five spot (or, if Cueto falters, both Owings and Bailey are in). Long relief - Nick Masset (although he has had an awful spring so far), the "leftovers" from the fifth-spot competition.

I am looking forward (still) to a great season, where this team will actually gel, win over 82 games (better than .500), and (hopefully) make a playoff run. Division title? Maybe not. Wild Card? Definitely possible.

Cincinnati Reds: 2009 Season Preview

The Cincinnati Reds, along with their team ownership and management staff, could be accused of a lot of things, but this off-season they cannot be accused of one thing: sitting still. While most media outlets have branded this team a “young” or “up-and-coming” group of potential future standouts, this team has a legitimate shot to contend in the 2009 season. They play in what has become a much tougher division – the National League (NL) Central – where perennial contenders include the big-payroll Chicago Cubs and the smaller-market but bigger-spending St. Louis Cardinals, both of whom will garner the lion’s share of attention for the divisional crown and/or the wild card berth. Get past the Cubs and Cardinals and you cannot miss last year’s “pleasant surprise” club – the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Reds rarely see the national spotlight cast their way, not realistically since their “better days” back in the NL West of the 1970’s and 1980’s. You could say this team has become under-appreciated (much like last season’s “Cinderella” in the Tampa Bay Rays) with a core of young talent surrounded by a veteran coaching staff and top-notch management. Owner Robert (Bob) Castellini wanted to put a winner on the field when he took over day-to-day ownership only a few long seasons ago … but it wasn’t until Dusty Baker (who made the playoffs with the Giants and Cubs in previous jobs) was hired prior to the 2008 season as well as the passing of the GM torch to well-respected front-office man Walt Jocketty (fresh from his success with the St. Louis Cardinals) that things appeared to be heading in a new direction. Former managers like Dave Miley, Jerry Narron, and Pete Mackanin were all solid baseball men … but Dusty is something that those men have never been (at least yet): a proven winner.

Yes, Dusty Baker will manage this team again in 2009 after a 2008 campaign that clearly fell apart. Baker was not solely to blame for the eventual 74-win season, but former GM Wayne Krivsky probably took far too much of the blame (i.e. the scapegoat) for why the team underachieved on the field. Arguably, signing guys like Corey Patterson and Paul Bako to larger-than-needed contracts was part of Krivsky’s eventual undoing, but he was also responsible (and credited) with bringing talent like Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Phillips, and Edinson Volquez here within the past couple of years. This team couldn’t have won 70 games without those three critical names, but, in the same vein, they could have won more if Aaron Harang, Edwin Encarnacion, and (now departed) Ken Griffey, Jr., had all lived up to their respective potentials. Adam Dunn is an enigma, a potential “private” clubhouse leader who gives a “public” persona that he just never cared about this baseball team. Without Dunn (or Griffey, for the matter), the short porch in right field rarely got used for the latter half of 2008. Guys like Jay Bruce and Joey Votto – both viable ROY candidates during the last season – produced in pleasantly unexpected ways both offensively (with HR potential) and defensively (although both experienced unnecessary lapses on the field). What will NOT be missed from Adam Dunn is a poorly-played left field position, where late-season call-up Chris Dickerson provided a much-needed spark both offensively (with impressive speed on the base paths) and defensively (making the spectacular sometimes look routine) in playing circles around what Dunn could have done in LF.

Here’s a quick review of the newest faces (and recently departed) based on off-season trades and free-agent signings:

(1) C Ramon Hernandez acquired from Baltimore Orioles for IF/OF Ryan Freel

(2) OF Willy Taveras signed as a free agent (played for Colorado Rockies in 2008)

(3) Re-signed IF/OF Jerry Hairston, Jr., P David Weathers, 3B Edwin Encarnacion, and P Mike Lincoln, among the more notable names

(4) Lost to free agency: P Jeremy Affeldt, OF Corey Patterson, C Paul Bako

(5) Notable names from 2008 absent in 2009: OF Ken Griffey, Jr., OF Adam Dunn

The first "big" deal was the acquisition of catcher Ramon Hernandez from the Baltimore Orioles for OF/utility man Ryan Freel. Freel's best days certainly appeared to be behind him, with a playing style best characterized as recklessly aggressive, and injuries over the past two seasons limited his availability and productivity. Hernandez saw his stock drop with a poor 2008 season, but his history indicates more upside potential and/or ability than he demonstrated last season. The two other players (minor leaguers) involved do not seem to warrant discussion, but I am happy to see a veteran catcher, particularly one of Latino descent, with a pitching staff of generally younger pitchers (and notable Latino phenoms in Volquez and Johnny Cueto). I think Jocketty played his cards right in this move.

While the free-agent signing of Willy Taveras seems to be met with mixed reviews, I honestly don't see Willy Taveras as the second coming of Corey Patterson for a handful of reasons, to be honest. Taveras was the MLB leader in stolen bases by a mile last season, and his steal % is excellent (over 90% as I recall, best in all of MLB). Yes, his OBP for last season, in all respects, was lousy. However, this team DOES need speed at the top of the order AND Ryan Freel, who was the team’s only other SB guy, has been hurt for most of the last two seasons. Jerry Hairston, who recently re-signed as a free agent, fills some of the speed equation, too, but where does he play longer term?

Edwin Encarnacion just might be a piece of the complex puzzle for the outfield that has been overlooked consistently. Some of the baseball "experts" have pointed to the fact that he plays third base hot and cold ... and makes some of the dumbest errors. Nobody questions he does have an arm, though, as most 3B do. Do with Encarnacion what the Brewers did with Ryan Braun - move him to the LF spot. Although local media (including Cincinnati Enquirer beat writer John Fay) has suggested it won’t happen, I still don’t see why it can’t happen.

GABP (Great American Ballpark) doesn't have to be a power park, plain and simple. For this with the local knowledge, remember the suggestion by Aaron Harang near the end of last season about raising some of the fences? While it seemed to be widely dismissed, it is not such an awful idea, particularly the small wall in right field. Want to equalize the effect for both teams? Raise that fence by a simple few feet (maybe wipe out one to two rows of seats at worst) and make hitters earn the cheap homers that the park allows.

Say what you will about the Griffey effect on the design of GABP ... how many of the "cheap" homers did he actually hit here? Adam Dunn could hit his mammoth shots in any park ... same goes for Reds' killers like Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Ryan Howard, to name but a few. Those guys hit the long bombs in ANY park ... not much you can do with a park that allows for the northwest wind and humid summer air to launch those “bad boys” right towards the Ohio River.

Walt Jocketty is not "delusional" ... in fact, I would say his moves so far have been respectable. Why does everyone think this team cannot compete in 2009? If any respectable Reds’ fan is in the "re-sign Dunn" camp that probably exists ... before you go that route, consider that the market isn't really what he wanted. The Reds, dare say it, might actually put him back in uniform before spring training (doubtful at this stage) OR they might just get a guy like Bobby Abreu or Xavier Nady to fill the outfield hole offensively and defensively. Both choices would add depth to a team in need of some veteran presence beyond Harang, Arroyo, and Phillips, among others.

Dunn had five-plus seasons to show us how one-dimensional he was - all power, no fielding. I'm hardly his biggest fan, and I believe he belongs in the American League where they value sluggers who can't field (the DH) just to provide more offense. If he signs with a team like the SF Giants or the LA Dodgers (both whom are seeking sluggers), he might succeed ... SF is a much better bet, though. In his later years, Barry Bonds wasn't playing a very good LF defensively anyway, so the same short porch (into McCovey Cove) at San Fran's ballpark would suit Dunner just fine. If I were the Giants, I would actually consider Dunn as the cheaper alternative to Man-Ram, who comes with too much personal baggage AND plays a lousy OF, too.

Here’s looking forward to a “Reds-Hot” Summer in 2009 … where your Cincinnati Reds just might be the new version of last season’s Tampa Bay Rays.

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All content courtesy of Clubhouse Connection (http://clubhouseconnection.com/) and respective author JD Rentz. All rights reserved.