Take me out to the ballgame, take me out with the crowd.
Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jack, I don't care if I never get back.
The old song rings in ballparks all across the country during the baseball season. We take our seventh inning stretch and chant along with the lyrics. There is something cathartic about going to baseball games, but the crowd and the atmosphere play a big part in the experience.
Since the season is still young and my own writing sparse, I haven't yet had a chance to attend any games in person this year. I actually could have gone to any of the games in my hometown Reds' first homestand (from Wednesday, 4/4, through Sunday, 4/8 ), but braving the weather elements of sub-40 degree days to watch baseball in April wasn't my preference. The only good weather day happened to be Opening Day, with its 80 degree temp and sunshine, but I didn't bother to buy a ticket and stayed at work instead. Since my goal isn't really to talk about the weather in this writing (atlhough it has been a factor in this early baseball season), my musings instead are about the standings across the divisions of MLB and what can be gleened (if anything) so far.
As an editorial note, I try to be humorous at times without taking this too seriously. I might occasionally try to spark some response, so don't be alarmed at my sometimes pointed critcisms / opinions. Readers of any of my past work will know what I mean ... new readers will understand. Considering how long it was between writings, even the "old" readers are new again anyway. Enjoy...
AL East:
Most of the pundits like to believe that the baseball world revolves around this division. Boston this, New York that. Sure, the Red Sox and the Yankees spend a lot of money every year to beat each other up as well as their divisional foes, but, how many times has this division produced the World Series champion in the past six years? Once - Boston in 2004. Respectively, the other divisions have been represented equally in the other years with the NL Central (Cardinals in 2006), Al Central (White Sox in 2005), NL East (Marlins in 2003), AL West (Angels in 2002), and NL West (Diamondbacks in 2001) each getting a title. The preceding five years tell the story of why this division is the focal point, though, with Yankees' titles in four of the five (1996, 1998-2000). The Yankees have been baseball's winningest team for a very long time, and with 26 titles and counting, it is hard to imagine any team catching them for a very long time, if ever. The next closest team is the NL's best in the Cardinals with their 10 titles (only the second team to reach double digits with last season's triumph).
Are the Yankees still the team to beat? It is hard to imagine they won't contend again, considering they haven't missed the post-season since divisional series play began in 1995 with the addition of the wild card spot. This is a team that can and will score runs, but their starting rotation is definitely suspect. It is hard to believe that Carl Pavano is the anchor of the staff with the best days of both Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte probably behind them. The Red Sox are arguably the division's best, with an aging Curt Schilling anchoring along with a strong Josh Beckett and hailed newcomer Daisuke Matsuzaka (aka Dice K). I can see this one as a Boston-NY 1-2 finish, possibly with the Blue Jays as a battler for that 2 spot.
The "oh, by the way" ... the Blue Jays have the very early lead with a 5-3 record over the two .500 teams (4-4) of the division: the Red Sox and the Yankees. The Red Sox biggest struggle so far has been scoring runs (only 33 in eight games, compared to 52 each for the Yanks and Jays).
AL Central:
This division seems to be up for grabs by multiple contenders, with only the Royals seemingly out of contention from day one. The White Sox are probably the next-least-likely to be the winner of the division with seemingly enough talent offensively but lacking the pitching depth to win. It seems like the Tigers, Indians, and Twins could all see it through to the end, but Minnesota will probably not be the same without Francisco Liriano in the rotation. It's 50-50 for me in choosing Detroit or Cleveland (I like both of them as regional AL favorites), but Detroit has last year's experience to build upon. Cleveland is going to be tough and score lots of runs (in what looks like a strong offense) ... will their pitching carry them through? I'll go with the Tigers for the division and the Indians to take the AL Wild Card. Sorry, Yankees ... this won't be your year. (fingers crossed ;-) )
In early returns, the Tigers and Twins have 5-3 records in leading the division while the Indians are close behind at 3-2, only having played five games with their snow-out series at home.
AL West:
I guess the Angels are a consensus pick in the division, and while I don't always go with a consensus choice, I think I will with this team. I think the Angels' manager, Mike Scioscia, is one of baseball's best, and the rest of the division just isn't strong enough to push them. My knowledge of the division is probably weakest to boot, so I'll stick with what little I do know. Moving on...
NL East:
The New York Mets so dominated this division last season that it's hard not to go for them again. The Phillies look to be a contender up to the task of knocking the Mets off the throne, but then I am thrown a conundrum with the quick start of the Braves. While I normally would make a prediction before the season and wouldn't have seen them play, Atlanta has had baseball's hottest start. Contrarily, Philadelphia has started very poorly (2-8 versus Atlanta's 7-1 mark). It's anybody's guess what will happen from here, but I will stick with the Mets (5-3 starting mark) and their pitching as the difference-maker in the division.
NL Central:
The most parity probably exists in the Central, and as much as I don't like to admit it, only one team will probably make the playoffs from here. The West looks too good to me this year to only send one team while this division will probably send one near the .500 mark again. The Cardinals are probably the default choice as defending champ, although the Brewers seem to be getting a lot of attention. I still have a spot in my heart for the Reds, even though the experts widely pan them. I expect them to do better than the consensus but probably not well enough to win the division. I will go with St. Louis for lack of a better choice.
At this point, parity is prevailing -- three teams are tied at the top with 5-4 marks: Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and St. Louis. Even the bottom teams have at least three wins (Chicago and Houston) with Pittsburgh in the middle.
NL West:
I like the Diamondbacks in this one, with some power pitching and enough offense to carry the day. The Dodgers probably have baseball's best rotation top to bottom, so picking them to end up in either the 1 or 2 spot here seems probable. San Diego could still surprise, but I don't know if they have enough offense. All three teams have started off on the right foot, with the D'backs at 7-3 and leading and both LA and SD close behind at 6-3.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Sunday, July 23, 2006
Reds Remain Contenders; Division, Wild Card in Reach
After a phenomenal season start that saw the Cincinnati Reds post a franchise-best month of April for wins (17-8), the succeeding months proved to be a dose of reality. May was a shock to the system, seeing the team post 12 wins versus 16 losses in bringing the overall record closer to .500. Despite the critics that seemed to be surfacing after May, June was tolerable, if not respectable, at 15-12, raising the overall record back to eight (8) games over the .500 mark by the start of July.
The record at the start of today (7/23/2006) is 52-46, six games over .500 and four games behind frontrunner St. Louis in the NL Central. The Reds are the NL leaders for the one NL Wild Card spot, 1 1/2 games ahead of a few contenders (Diamondbacks and Padres from the NL West) as well as familiar names across the league (Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Phillies, Rockies, and Astros) who are all within six games of the Reds for that spot. Interestingly, the Braves have been surging despite a horrible season start to put themselves into contention once again, despite being a distant second to the NL East-leading Mets (with the NL's best record at 59-38).
July has been the good, the bad, and the ugly for this ballclub. The good: eight (8) wins in the month, seven (7) since the All-Star break, and looking for their second home series sweep versus the Brewers this Sunday (the other was a four-game sweep over the Rockies last weekend). The bad: six straight losses to start July, a 1-8 record before the break in the month, and a trade that saw two offensive weapons (Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez) traded away for relief pitching. The ugly: the return on that Kearns-Lopez trade with the Washington Nationals hasn't yielded much, particularly with reliever Gary Majewski blowing leads and losing games since arriving with the club.
The better? Eddie Guardado has been a welcome presence in an easy trade from the Seattle Mariners that has seen "Everyday Eddie" return to his familiar role of closer. The team needed Guardado more than anybody, and the added presence of Bill Bray (a hard-throwing lefty) and Royce Clayton (a veteran shortstop) from that same Nationals-Reds trade has been a net positive. This team has had many come-from-behind wins, with a decent number from bad relief pitching performances, but the difference now is the late innings have seen the bullpen hold more scores than let things get out of hand.
My "prognostication" for the club is that the playoffs are still within reach, and the upcoming series versus division rivals Houston and Milwaukee could seal the deal. With a critical St. Louis series looming in early August, the club has an "easier" September within reach if it can survive the remainder of July on the road and then a tougher schedule with NL West rivals throughout August at home. The improved performance at home is certainly a breath of fresh air for loyal fans who have been attending these many home games to date and seen the Reds post a better road record than a home record.
Stay tuned, Reds fans ... this ride isn't over yet!
The record at the start of today (7/23/2006) is 52-46, six games over .500 and four games behind frontrunner St. Louis in the NL Central. The Reds are the NL leaders for the one NL Wild Card spot, 1 1/2 games ahead of a few contenders (Diamondbacks and Padres from the NL West) as well as familiar names across the league (Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Phillies, Rockies, and Astros) who are all within six games of the Reds for that spot. Interestingly, the Braves have been surging despite a horrible season start to put themselves into contention once again, despite being a distant second to the NL East-leading Mets (with the NL's best record at 59-38).
July has been the good, the bad, and the ugly for this ballclub. The good: eight (8) wins in the month, seven (7) since the All-Star break, and looking for their second home series sweep versus the Brewers this Sunday (the other was a four-game sweep over the Rockies last weekend). The bad: six straight losses to start July, a 1-8 record before the break in the month, and a trade that saw two offensive weapons (Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez) traded away for relief pitching. The ugly: the return on that Kearns-Lopez trade with the Washington Nationals hasn't yielded much, particularly with reliever Gary Majewski blowing leads and losing games since arriving with the club.
The better? Eddie Guardado has been a welcome presence in an easy trade from the Seattle Mariners that has seen "Everyday Eddie" return to his familiar role of closer. The team needed Guardado more than anybody, and the added presence of Bill Bray (a hard-throwing lefty) and Royce Clayton (a veteran shortstop) from that same Nationals-Reds trade has been a net positive. This team has had many come-from-behind wins, with a decent number from bad relief pitching performances, but the difference now is the late innings have seen the bullpen hold more scores than let things get out of hand.
My "prognostication" for the club is that the playoffs are still within reach, and the upcoming series versus division rivals Houston and Milwaukee could seal the deal. With a critical St. Louis series looming in early August, the club has an "easier" September within reach if it can survive the remainder of July on the road and then a tougher schedule with NL West rivals throughout August at home. The improved performance at home is certainly a breath of fresh air for loyal fans who have been attending these many home games to date and seen the Reds post a better road record than a home record.
Stay tuned, Reds fans ... this ride isn't over yet!
Thursday, July 13, 2006
A Reality Check ... Did Reds Really "Lose" In Today's Blockbuster Trade?!?
OK, I have scanned over a number of comments from my fellow fans so far, and I have seen very few which were positive in favor of the Cincinnati Reds getting the better part of this deal. As a lifelong Reds fan, I can say that I completely support any move at this stage of the season that strengthens the team's bullpen and delivers some hope to make a run for the playoffs. Why? Let's break it down...
Austin Kearns: Unquestionably, he is the most talented player involved in this trade. Kearns has been playing solid defense, has begun to learn to hit for average, and has more than enough power to be a threat in any team's lineup. I like Kearns personally, but, at the same time, his upside potential is limited to his ability to make contact. Austin swings for the fences (much like his counterpart Adam Dunn) but doesn't always reach his destination. It is harder for me to see Kearns go, but we have to give up something to get something.
Felipe Lopez: Lopez may have been the Reds' All-Star of 2005, but he has not been that same player this year. Barry Larkin, he is not. What Lopez had done well last season was hit for average and power as well as showcase awesome speed and good defensive range. What Felipe has failed to do this season is hit for as much power, strikeout more often (with a lower BA), and commit stupid errors at critical points in games. Whether his fielding ultimately cost his job remains to be seen, but it certainly did not help his cause.
Ryan Wagner: I thought Wagner was the closer in the wings when he made the team last season, but he has languished in AAA all season this year and failed to prove his ability to make the MLB club full-time with a variety of pitches. He has plenty of pop (95-99 mph on the gun), but his control needs work. He and Kearns may be the two we may regret down the road, while Lopez may ultimately be forgettable (imho).
So, for our three players (two ML'ers and one in AAA) we receive five players (indicating more players to offset the potential talent lost). I cannot say I am expert at our team's acquisitions, but here is my take on each ...
Gary Majewski: 26 yo righty with ML career with the Expos / Nationals. He does not appear to be overpowering, but his ERA was close to team-best for Washington last season (2.93) and one of the best this season (3.5, despite a bad outing (3 runs in 1/3 inning on Sunday) that raised it nearly 0.5 (from 3.11 to 3.5. Given the Reds have a bullpen ERA over 5.00 (at 5.16 before Thursday), Majewski is a net help immediately.
Bill Bray: Former 1st round pick (like Ryan Wagner, same draft) with upside potential and nice speed on the fastball. The 23 yo southpaw looks like the diamond in the rough for the Reds and is a key pitching prospect / talent from the Nationals' organization.
Royce Clayton: Almost anybody who follows baseball knows about Clayton. Clayton's strength is more about his defense than his batting, but, offensively, his best years may be behind him. Clearly a journeyman shortstop, he can still play everyday at the age of 36, but even his defense has weakened a bit with 11 errors this season to date. His best defensive seasons were with the Chicago White Sox in 2001 and 2002 with .988 and .989 FP%, respectively, as well as under 10 errors in each year (7 and 5, respectively). Clayton can be a fair sub for Lopez on a day-to-day basis if not platooning with Rich Aurilia and/or Ryan Freel around the infield, including Juan Castro and Brandon Phillips, who both can play at SS as well.
Brendan Harris: The bench player / pinch hitter should be a help for the infield with solid defensive skills as well as the ability to deliver a pinch hit in the clutch. Harris is only turning 26 yo in August, so I think his career potential has upside at this juncture. The Reds should feel comfortable with Harris as a late-inning defensive sub and/or another bat off the bench. But, the other Reds' players affected include ...
Ryan Freel: Freel may get a chance to be more of an everyday player with Kearns or Lopez around, but he will continue to find his niche here no matter what. His speed is impressive, and his defensive skills at a variety of positions make him a versatile, and valuable, utilityman.
Chris Denorfia: With the absence of Austin Kearns, Denorfia moves up from AAA to have an opportunity to take over RF full-time. His first audition earlier this season showed some of his worth, before being sent back to AAA in mid-May. He had four hits in only eight AB (.500) with seven game appearances on the season. GM Wayne Krivsky is very keen on Denorfia as an everyday player, and, in turning 26 on Saturday this week, Denorfia is ready to prove himself as an everyday player.
All in all, the bullpen of the Reds needed the most help, so having both Majewski and Bray should be a net benefit to a club that is offense-heavy and pitching-weak. Kearns will be missed for his solid and consistent play (and likely All-Star future) while Lopez will be missed for having failed to deliver what "could have been" in carrying on the tradition of Reds at SS with Concepcion and Larkin. Wagner's jury is still out, although I personally am a big supporter of the kid.
Majewski and Bray may not be Kearns and Lopez today, but, combining the two new Reds with the other three, the trade seems reasonable and balanced to me for a team in need of pitching.
Austin Kearns: Unquestionably, he is the most talented player involved in this trade. Kearns has been playing solid defense, has begun to learn to hit for average, and has more than enough power to be a threat in any team's lineup. I like Kearns personally, but, at the same time, his upside potential is limited to his ability to make contact. Austin swings for the fences (much like his counterpart Adam Dunn) but doesn't always reach his destination. It is harder for me to see Kearns go, but we have to give up something to get something.
Felipe Lopez: Lopez may have been the Reds' All-Star of 2005, but he has not been that same player this year. Barry Larkin, he is not. What Lopez had done well last season was hit for average and power as well as showcase awesome speed and good defensive range. What Felipe has failed to do this season is hit for as much power, strikeout more often (with a lower BA), and commit stupid errors at critical points in games. Whether his fielding ultimately cost his job remains to be seen, but it certainly did not help his cause.
Ryan Wagner: I thought Wagner was the closer in the wings when he made the team last season, but he has languished in AAA all season this year and failed to prove his ability to make the MLB club full-time with a variety of pitches. He has plenty of pop (95-99 mph on the gun), but his control needs work. He and Kearns may be the two we may regret down the road, while Lopez may ultimately be forgettable (imho).
So, for our three players (two ML'ers and one in AAA) we receive five players (indicating more players to offset the potential talent lost). I cannot say I am expert at our team's acquisitions, but here is my take on each ...
Gary Majewski: 26 yo righty with ML career with the Expos / Nationals. He does not appear to be overpowering, but his ERA was close to team-best for Washington last season (2.93) and one of the best this season (3.5, despite a bad outing (3 runs in 1/3 inning on Sunday) that raised it nearly 0.5 (from 3.11 to 3.5. Given the Reds have a bullpen ERA over 5.00 (at 5.16 before Thursday), Majewski is a net help immediately.
Bill Bray: Former 1st round pick (like Ryan Wagner, same draft) with upside potential and nice speed on the fastball. The 23 yo southpaw looks like the diamond in the rough for the Reds and is a key pitching prospect / talent from the Nationals' organization.
Royce Clayton: Almost anybody who follows baseball knows about Clayton. Clayton's strength is more about his defense than his batting, but, offensively, his best years may be behind him. Clearly a journeyman shortstop, he can still play everyday at the age of 36, but even his defense has weakened a bit with 11 errors this season to date. His best defensive seasons were with the Chicago White Sox in 2001 and 2002 with .988 and .989 FP%, respectively, as well as under 10 errors in each year (7 and 5, respectively). Clayton can be a fair sub for Lopez on a day-to-day basis if not platooning with Rich Aurilia and/or Ryan Freel around the infield, including Juan Castro and Brandon Phillips, who both can play at SS as well.
Brendan Harris: The bench player / pinch hitter should be a help for the infield with solid defensive skills as well as the ability to deliver a pinch hit in the clutch. Harris is only turning 26 yo in August, so I think his career potential has upside at this juncture. The Reds should feel comfortable with Harris as a late-inning defensive sub and/or another bat off the bench. But, the other Reds' players affected include ...
Ryan Freel: Freel may get a chance to be more of an everyday player with Kearns or Lopez around, but he will continue to find his niche here no matter what. His speed is impressive, and his defensive skills at a variety of positions make him a versatile, and valuable, utilityman.
Chris Denorfia: With the absence of Austin Kearns, Denorfia moves up from AAA to have an opportunity to take over RF full-time. His first audition earlier this season showed some of his worth, before being sent back to AAA in mid-May. He had four hits in only eight AB (.500) with seven game appearances on the season. GM Wayne Krivsky is very keen on Denorfia as an everyday player, and, in turning 26 on Saturday this week, Denorfia is ready to prove himself as an everyday player.
All in all, the bullpen of the Reds needed the most help, so having both Majewski and Bray should be a net benefit to a club that is offense-heavy and pitching-weak. Kearns will be missed for his solid and consistent play (and likely All-Star future) while Lopez will be missed for having failed to deliver what "could have been" in carrying on the tradition of Reds at SS with Concepcion and Larkin. Wagner's jury is still out, although I personally am a big supporter of the kid.
Majewski and Bray may not be Kearns and Lopez today, but, combining the two new Reds with the other three, the trade seems reasonable and balanced to me for a team in need of pitching.
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